WORLD: Better weather in South America

From 31/01 to 07/02, the March delivery price in Chicago fell very slightly to $192/t. Traders are reassured by the relative lull in Donald Trump’s customs announcements and are adopting a cautious approach ahead of the USDA’s monthly report on Tuesday 11/02. They will be keeping a close eye on the US balance sheet in view of the two major falls in stocks in December and January, although the weakening fundamentals in the Corn Belt do not argue in favour of a further reduction in stocks. Demand remains robust in the United States. Last week, export contracts reached 1.5 Mt, at the top end of operators’ expectations. As announced by President Sheinbaum, Mexico has officially dropped all restrictions on imports of GM maize for human consumption, after failing to defend this measure in the face of a US complaint. The USDA’s adjustments to South American balance sheets will also be closely watched as the weather improves. In Argentina, the rains have returned, helping to stabilise the situation for early sowings, in the grain filling phase, and to improve that of late sowings, in flowering. However, temperatures remain hot, with frequent days of over 40°C, which is having a detrimental effect on flowering. In Brazil, the relative lull in the rains affecting the centre-west has enabled a marked acceleration in soya harvesting and safrinha maize sowing, a situation which is set to continue this week. On 08/02, in Mato Grosso, the leading producer state, safrinha maize sowings had reached 23%, compared with an average of 33% at that date, but only 6% last week. The investments made in recent years are now enabling very high work rates to be achieved. CONAB is due to give its first estimate of the area sown to safrinha maize on 13/02. These are expected to rise slightly this year, with domestic prices driven by strong demand from the ethanol industry.

EUROPE: Import projections maintained

The European Commission has left its forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year virtually unchanged from that drawn up in December. The import projection has been maintained at 19.5 Mt. As of 03/02, the EU had imported 11.9 Mt of maize, compared with an average of 12.4 Mt on that date. Operators are relatively reassured by the lull in Donald Trump’s announcements on tariffs. However, he now seems to be adopting a sectoral approach, particularly on steel and aluminium, which could affect the EU and reactivate a trade dispute dating back to his first term in office.