WORLD: Trump postpones tariffs

From 17/01 to 24/01, in a week shortened by a public holiday, the March delivery price in Chicago gained $4/t to stand at $191/t. Traders were reassured by Donald Trump’s trade announcements. In this context, funds remain buyers. Donald Trump had promised major tariffs to his main trading partners as soon as he was inaugurated on 20/01. He finally postponed his announcements until 01/02 concerning Mexico and Canada, major buyers of US maize and ethanol. He also gave a positive account of his first talks with Xi Jinping. These factors have reassured traders, who see the spectre of trade wars temporarily receding. However, these threats are not just rhetorical, as shown by the strong pressure exerted at the end of the week on Colombia, which is also a major importer of American maize. Faced with threats of additional customs duties of 50%, the Colombian authorities finally gave in to US demands on migration. Last week in the United States, export contracts reached 1.66 Mt, at the top end of operators’ expectations. Ethanol production remained at a high level, but stocks are now approaching 26 million barrels, the highest since April 2024. Manufacturers were pleased with Trump’s announcements concerning the abandonment of targets for the electrification of the car fleet and the possibility of selling E-15 all year round at federal level. This enthusiasm was tempered by the appointment of Brooke Rollins, a Texan opposed to ethanol, as head of the USDA. In Argentina, some rain has fallen, but it is still not enough to make up for the water deficit. This led the Buenos Aires grain exchange to consider that 30% of maize was in good to excellent condition on 23/01, down 9 points on the previous week, and to reduce its production estimate by 1 Mt (49 Mt). The government has also announced a reduction in export taxes on maize from 12% to 9.5%.
In Brazil, the rainy weather is continuing, delaying the soya harvest and the sowing of safrinha maize. In Mato Grosso, the main producer state, 1% of maize had been sown by 24/01, compared with an average of 11% by that date.

EUROPE: Slowdown in Black Sea exports

Exports of Russian wheat and Ukrainian maize slowed by 43% in January 2025 compared to January 2024, as a result of lower cereal production in these two countries in 2024/2025 and a very dynamic start to the season. This should gradually ease the pressure on the European market in the 2nd half of the season.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture has confirmed that maize acreage is set to rise in 2025, from 3.9 Mha in 2024 to 4.15 Mha, thanks to more attractive prices and high soya stocks.