WORLD: Rains in South America
From 27/09 to 04/10, the December delivery price in Chicago rose by $2/t to $167/t. maize continued to rise against a backdrop of geopolitical and climatic uncertainty, and even tested the $170/t threshold, which had not been breached since last June. Uncertainties are prompting non-commercial funds to reduce their net short positions in Chicago maize. Last week was marked by the publication of 2023/24 ending stocks, which, at 45 Mt, turned out to be lower than expected against a backdrop of dynamic export and domestic demand. This drop should be reflected in the USDA’s monthly report to be published this Friday. Last week in the United States, export contracts reached 1.68 Mt, exceeding operators’ expectations. Export sales regained momentum after 2 not-so-good weeks. Port operations were unaffected by the short-lived strike by US dockworkers. Ethanol production once again broke through the million barrels/day barrier. Oil prices broke through the $70/barrel barrier against a backdrop of tensions in the Middle East. In Brazil and Argentina, rain is expected this week in the main production zones, after several weeks of drought. This should speed up planting. In Brazil, 30% of safra maize has been sown, and in Argentina 14%, both figures slightly below average for this date.
China has confirmed that it will maintain its low-tariff quota (1%) of 7.2 Mt for maize in 2025. In theory, imports above this quota are subject to a 65% tariff, but this is applied on a discretionary basis. China is likely to remain one of the world’s leading importers of maize in 2024/25, with 20 Mt, a fact to be monitored between the government’s desire to limit grain imports and the announcement of a massive economic support plan that could boost weakened growth.

EUROPE: Maize reaches $200/t in Odessa
The price of Ukrainian maize in Odessa reached $200/t, compared with around $160/t at the beginning of January 2024, against a backdrop of falling production and the attractiveness of Ukrainian maize to buyers, particularly in Europe. Tensions also remain high in the Black Sea, where a ship loaded with 6,000 tonnes of Ukrainian maize bound for Italy was hit on 06/10 by Russian shelling in Pivdenny. The weather also remains a cause for concern in the area. Several Russian regions have declared a state of emergency due to a long-lasting drought affecting straw cereal sowings. Rain is expected this week.
The dollar strengthened against the euro on the back of good macroeconomic indicators in the United States, a move favourable to the competitiveness of European cereals.